Energy Outlook

We consume energy in every field from transport to food production, from heating to industry. The policies that govern industry, transport, urbanisation and consumption have a significant impact on the amount of energy consumed. Furthermore, they determine the source of energy consumed. For instance, while natural gas, a primary energy source, is used for heating in residential settings, electricity, a secondary energy source, can be employed for lighting. For further information on the relationship between energy sources and energy consumption and global climate change, please refer to the section on climate and energy. 

Global energy demand is rising, although not at the same rate every year. Although growth has slowed slightly following the rapid surge in the aftermath of the pandemic, demand has been rising steadily for the past four years. In 2024, the rate of increase in primary energy consumption was 2.61%. The majority of energy demand is met by fossil fuels, namely oil, coal and gas. This has an adverse effect on the climate. In 2011, fossil fuels accounted for 81.2 per cent of final energy consumption. Despite the rise in energy demand—driven in part by efforts to tackle the climate crisis and the environmental problems caused by fossil fuels—this figure fell to 80.7 per cent by 2024.

The proposed roadmaps for reducing the proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumption are primarily based on the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Furthermore, they advocate a reduction in energy demand and the efficient use of energy. The following sectors are responsible for the global final energy consumption of 453 exajoules (EJ) in 2022: industry (174 EJ), buildings (127 EJ), transport (125 EJ) and other sectors (27 EJ).

Analysts are forecasting future energy demand. In its World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines three main scenarios. In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the forecast is for final energy consumption to increase by an average of 1 per cent per year until 2035, and by an average of 0.7 per cent per year between 2035 and 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), energy consumption is expected to increase until the mid-2020s, after which it is anticipated to decline. This will bring energy demand to 541 EJ by 2050. Under the Net Zero Scenario (NZS), however, energy consumption is projected to fall by an average of 0.9 per cent annually from now on, reaching 352 EJ by 2050. In the scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are minimised, there is also a notable reduction in energy consumption.

The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, which aims to limit the temperature increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius, states that energy consumption should be limited despite an expected increase in the world population expected to reach 9.8 billion. It is also important to note that 675 million people currently do not have access to electricity. The efficient use of energy and the electrification of processes will play an important role in reducing energy demand. Just 23 per cent of total final energy production is accounted for by electricity. The proportion of global electricity generation provided by renewable energy sources is currently 34 per cent, but this figure is rising rapidly. In 2012, the figure was 21.3 per cent.  

Furthermore, the United Nations International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is developing scenarios to achieve the 1.5°C target. The 1.5°C targeted energy transition roadmap proposes  a strategy of supporting electrification and energy efficiency with renewable energy, hydrogen and sustainable biomass. IRENA’s “World Energy Transition Outlook 2023” report indicates that in order to achieve the 1.5°C target, 91% of global electricity generation in 2050 should be provided from renewable energy sources. In the same scenario, it is forecast that the share of electricity in final energy consumption will reach 51 per cent in 2050. Consequently, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, which generate electricity, can be utilised in numerous locations without any loss.

Turkey’s energy outlook

In 2024, primary energy supply in Turkey was 165.2 million TOE. A year ago, this figure was 158.4 million TOE. The share of imported resources in energy supply is 67 per cent. Turkey’s dependence on foreign sources for energy supply rose to 76 per cent in 2015, but with the increase use of renewable energy sources in recent years, especially in solar, wind and geothermal, it decreased to 70 per cent in 2020 and 67 per cent in 2024. In 2025, the amount paid for imports of energy and raw materials was over $62.4 billion.

Although the proportion of imported sources in the primary energy supply is declining, the proportion of fossil fuels is not falling at the same rate. This can be seen more clearly when we look at the share of resources in primary energy supply. In 2024, the share of oil, gas and coal in primary energy supply was 29.1 per cent, 26.5 per cent and 25.2 per cent, respectively. The sum of the shares of these three fossil fuels reaches 81.3 per cent.1

In terms of sectors where primary energy is consumed, the residential and trade and services sectors lead the way with 25.50 per cent, followed by industry with 23.29 per cent, the power generation and energy sector with 22.16 per cent, agriculture and livestock with 3.49 per cent, and non-energy consumption with 3.87 per cent.2

As for electricity generation, Turkey had reached an installed capacity of 125,381 megawatts (MW) as of April 2026. Within the installed capacity, thermal power stations accounted for 49,430 MW, hydroelectric power stations for 32,308 MW (23,868 MW of which is dam-based), solar power for 26,739 MW, and wind power stations for 15,106 MW.

Gas24748
Lignite10229
Hard coal916
Asphaltite coal405
Imported coal10462
Fuel Oil254
Biomass2139
Geothermal1798
HEPP with Dam23868
Stream HEPP8439
Sun26739
Wind15106
Other278

Table: Turkey’s Electricity Generation Installed Capacity by Source – MW (1 May 2026)

In 2025, gas-fired thermal power stations accounted for the largest share of electricity generation at 22.18 per cent. Thermal power stations fuelled by imported coal slipped to second place with a 21.46 per cent share after occupying the top spot for two years. They were followed by hydroelectric power (16.03%), wind (11.13%), lignite (10.77%), solar (10.51%), geothermal (3.14%), biomass (2.59%) and hard coal (1.15%). Fossil fuels accounted for 56.6 per cent of electricity generation.

  1. The data in this paragraph is based on EKOSFER’s calculations derived from energy balance tables. ↩︎
  2. The data in this paragraph is based on EKOSFER’s calculations derived from energy balance tables. ↩︎