The future of electricity generation from coal in the world
As of 1 January 2026, there are 2,436 operational coal-fired power stations worldwide. The installed capacity of these stations exceeds 2,200 GW, and a further 242 GW of capacity is currently under construction. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by phasing out coal use to halt the climate crisis is undoubtedly one of the most important priorities on the global agenda. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), coal’s share of global primary energy supply must be reduced to between 1% and 7% by 2050. Coal currently accounts for 28% of global primary energy supply, ranking second only to oil.
In its 2019 study, Climate Analytics recommended that coal-fired electricity generation should end worldwide by 2040 to stay below a 1.5-degree temperature rise. The report recommends a reduction of coal use in electricity generation by 80 per cent below 2010 levels by 2030, with the complete cessation of coal use in OECD countries by the same year. However, according to Global Coal Plant Tracker data, half of the coal-fired power plants currently in operation do not have closure dates consistent with the Paris Agreement.
In the ‘Net Zero Emissions Scenario’ of its World Energy Outlook 2025 report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) states that the share of coal-fired electricity generation must fall to six per cent by 2035 and reach zero by 2050. Meanwhile, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that, in all its scenarios aimed at keeping global warming below 2°C by 2050, all coal-fired power stations without carbon capture and storage technology must be closed.
In 2020, coal demand fell by approximately 20 percent in the US and the European Union (EU) and by 8 percent in India and South Africa, whilst in China the increase in demand was limited to 1 percent. However, the decline in demand has since rebounded following the pandemic. Global coal production reached a record level of 9.15 billion tonnes in 2024, driven primarily by strong production in China, India and Indonesia. Coal demand also set a record that same year. The driving force behind global coal demand, coal use for electricity generation, also reached its highest recorded level in 2024 at 10,766 terawatt-hours (TWh). Coal demand is expected to remain at levels similar to those of 2024 in 2026.
The situation triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has brought the issue of temporarily maintaining or reactivating coal-fired power stations to the fore, particularly in European countries, in anticipation of a potential reduction or cut-off in gas supplies from Russia. While this trend has not yet radically altered European countries’ plans to phase out coal, the issues surrounding the Strait of Hormuz following the attack on Iran could lead to changes in energy policies. Many European countries have officially announced the dates by which they will close their coal-fired power stations. You can follow the current situation on the map in the ‘Coal in Europe’ section of our website.
According to the ‘Boom and Bust Coal 2025‘ report, global coal-fired power plant capacity increased by 18.8 GW in 2024, resulting in a 0.9 per cent rise in global installed coal-fired power capacity. While 44.1 GW of capacity was added to the grid, 25.2 GW was decommissioned. This marked the lowest increase in capacity seen in 19 years. Of the new power stations, 30.5 GW were commissioned in China. Excluding China, capacity decreased by 9.2 GW globally. Following the Paris Agreement, the United Kingdom became the sixth country to phase out coal by closing its last coal-fired power station. The trend towards phasing out coal has become quite pronounced across the 38 OECD countries. While the number of coal-fired power station projects has fallen from 142 in 2015 to just five, the closure of power stations must also accelerate if climate targets are to be met. In Turkey, the planned capacity of coal-fired power stations has fallen to 0.7 GW (the additional units of the Afşin-Elbistan A Power Plant), reaching its lowest level in 10 years.
Projected Progress of Turkey’s Electricity Mix, 2015 – 2023. 2015 and 2019 data are from TEİAŞ Electricity Statistics, 2023 targets are from the 11th Development Plan.
The future of coal-fired electricity generation in Turkey
According to the Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of the Republic of Turkey’s 2024–2028 Strategic Plan, the target was for the installed capacity of coal- and gas-fired thermal power stations to reach 49,077 MW by 2028. However, as of 1 May 2026, this target had been exceeded with an installed capacity of 49,430 MW, two years ahead of schedule. The National Energy Plan, published in 2022, sets out plans to increase the installed capacity of gas- and coal-fired thermal power stations to 30.3 GW and 22.8 GW respectively by 2030. It is planned that the installed capacity based on fossil fuels will be further increased to 24.3 GW for coal and 35.5 GW for gas by 2035. These targets clearly conflict with the 2053 net-zero target.
Despite the targets set out in two different plans, the number of coal-fired power plant projects in Turkey’s pipeline continues to shrink. While there were over 70 coal-fired power plants in the pipeline in 2015, this figure has now fallen to just one. The two new units planned for the Afşin-Elbistan A power station have a total installed capacity of 0.7 GW. Turkey’s current fleet of coal-fired power stations has an installed capacity of 22 GW1. Of this, 10.4 GW comes from imported coal, 10.2 GW from lignite, and 0.9 GW from domestic hard coal. The last major coal-fired thermal power station commissioned in Turkey was the Hunutlu Thermal Power Station in Adana, which came online in 2021 and operates on imported coal.
Opinions differ on the future of Turkey’s energy mix. Turkey possesses abundant renewable energy resources. The use of renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar power, is expected to grow significantly within the country’s energy system due to their costs falling dramatically. In 2015, wind, solar and geothermal energy accounted for 5.8 percent of Turkey’s electricity generation. By the end of 2025, this figure had risen to 24.72 percent. Solar and wind power plants have led the increase in installed capacity in recent years. In April 2026, the combined installed capacity of solar and wind energy reached 33% of Turkey’s total installed capacity. Further details can be found in the Renewable Energy in Turkey section.
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