Energy Outlook

We consume energy in every field from transport to food production, from heating to industry. The policies that govern industry, transport, urbanisation and consumption have a significant impact on the amount of energy consumed. Furthermore, they determine the source of energy consumed. For instance, while natural gas, a primary energy source, is used for heating in residential settings, electricity, a secondary energy source, can be employed for lighting. For further information on the relationship between energy sources and energy consumption and global climate change, please refer to the section on climate and energy. 

Global energy demand is rising year on year, albeit at a varying rate. Following the conclusion of the pandemic in 2022, the rate of increase in demand levelled off. In 2022, the rate of increase in global energy demand remained at 1.1 per cent. The majority of energy demand is met by fossil fuels, namely oil, coal and gas. This has an adverse effect on the climate. In 2011, the proportion of energy consumption accounted for by fossil fuels was 81.2 per cent. This share decreased to 78.9 per cent over the following decade, reflecting the industry’s response to the climate crisis and the environmental issues associated with fossil fuels. The proportion of modern renewable energy sources (such as solar and wind) increased from 8.8% to 12.6% over the same period.

The proposed roadmaps for reducing the proportion of fossil fuels in energy consumption are primarily based on the substitution of fossil fuels with renewable energy sources. Furthermore, they advocate a reduction in energy demand and the efficient use of energy. The following sectors are responsible for the global final energy consumption of 442 exajoules (EJ) in 2022: industry (167 EJ), buildings (133 EJ), transport (116 EJ) and other sectors (27 EJ).Analysts are forecasting future energy demand. In its World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency (IEA) outlines three main scenarios. In the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), the forecast is for final energy consumption to increase by 1.1 per cent per year until 2030, with rates then decreasing between 2030 and 2050. This would result in an energy demand of 536 EJ by 2050. In the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), energy consumption is expected to increase until the mid-2020s, after which it is anticipated to decline. By 2050, we will be able to reduce our energy consumption to 429 EJ. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZS) forecasts a decline in energy consumption of 0.9% per year, starting today, down to 343 EJ by 2050. In the scenario where greenhouse gas emissions are minimised, there is also a notable reduction in energy consumption.

The IEA’s Net Zero Scenario, which aims to limit the temperature increase by 1.5 degrees Celsius, states that energy consumption should be limited despite an expected increase in the world population expected to reach 9.8 billion. It is also important to note that 675 million people currently do not have access to electricity. The efficient use of energy and the electrification of processes will play an important role in reducing energy demand. Just 23 per cent of total final energy production is accounted for by electricity. The proportion of global electricity generation provided by renewable energy sources is currently 30 per cent, but this figure is rising rapidly. In 2012, the figure was 21.3 per cent.  

Furthermore, the United Nations International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is developing scenarios to achieve the 1.5°C target. The 1.5°C targeted energy transition roadmap proposes  a strategy of supporting electrification and energy efficiency with renewable energy, hydrogen and sustainable biomass. IRENA’s “World Energy Transition Outlook 2023” report indicates that in order to achieve the 1.5°C target, 91% of global electricity generation in 2050 should be provided from renewable energy sources. In the same scenario, it is forecast that the share of electricity in final energy consumption will reach 51 per cent in 2050. Consequently, renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, which generate electricity, can be utilised in numerous locations without any loss.

Turkey’s energy outlook

In 2022, primary energy supply in Turkey was 157.7 million TOE. A year ago, this figure was 159.5 million TOE. The share of imported resources in energy supply was 68 per cent. Turkey’s dependence on foreign sources for energy supply rose to 76 per cent in 2015, but with the increase in recent years, especially in solar, wind and geothermal, it decreased to 70 per cent in 2020 and 68 per cent in 2022. In 2023, the amount paid for imports of energy and raw materials was over $69 billion.

Turkey’s dependence on imported energy resources is mainly due to fossil fuels. This can be seen more clearly when we look at the share of resources in primary energy supply. In 2022, the share of oil, gas and coal in primary energy supply was 28.6 per cent, 27.6 per cent and 26.2 per cent, respectively. The sum of the shares of these three fossil fuels reaches 82.4 per cent.

In the sectors where primary energy is consumed, industry ranks first with 23.96 per cent, followed by cycle and energy sector with 23.70 per cent, transport with 19.5 per cent, housing with 16.95 per cent, trade and service sector with 8.21 per cent, agriculture and animal husbandry with 3.21 per cent and other non-energy sectors with 4.46 per cent.   In electricity generation, Turkey reached an installed capacity of 110 thousand 606 megawatts (MW) as of July 2024. The share of thermal power plants in the installed capacity was 49 thousand 284 MW, hydroelectric power plants 32 thousand 185 MW (28855 MW with dams), solar power 15 thousand 202 MW and wind power plants 12 thousand 244 MW.

Gas	24688
Lignite	10207
Hard coal	841
Asphaltite coal	405
Imported coal	10404
Fuel Oil	255
Biomass	2110
Geothermal	1691
HEPP with Dam	23855
Stream HEPP	8339
Sun	18434
Wind	12343
Other	326

In 2023, imported coal-fired thermal power plants had the largest share in electricity generation with 22.38 per cent. For the first time in history, imported coal-fired thermal power plants ranked first. Imported coal was followed by gas with 20.88 percent, hydroelectricity with 19.43 percent, lignite with 12.5 percent, wind with 10.52 percent, solar with 5.83 percent, geothermal with 3.43 percent, biomass with 2.65 percent and hard coal with 1.23 percent. The share of fossil fuels in electricity generation remained slightly above 58 per cent.