Climate and Energy

Of the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that cause the climate crisis, 34 per cent come from energy supply, 24 per cent from industry, 22 per cent from agricultural activities and deforestation, 15 per cent from transport and 6 per cent from buildings. When a calculation is made based on energy use in different sectors (such as buildings and transportation), we see that 73.2 percent of the approximately 50 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (CO² equivalent) released into the atmosphere every year are energy-based. Therefore, the abandonment of fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas), which cause greenhouse gas emissions, stands out in efforts to stop the climate crisis. 

The role of oil, coal and gas in the energy system varies both in terms of their use and the amount of use. Some fossil fuels are used to generate electricity, while others can be used directly to generate heat. In 2023, 81.5 per cent of the world’s total final energy consumption was covered by fossil fuels. Among fossil fuels, we use oil the most, followed by coal and gas. Fossil fuels are followed by hydroelectricity, nuclear and other renewable energy sources, led by wind and solar. Traditional biomass sources (wood, dry dung, etc.) still account for as large a share of final energy consumption as hydroelectric power plants.

To halt the climate crisis, it is imperative that the volume of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere on an annual basis is swiftly curtailed. The objective of the 1.5 and 2-degree targets is to align with the scientific basis set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the political roadmap outlined in the Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015. In order to maintain an increase in average surface temperature below 1.5 degrees, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 42 per cent by 2030 in comparison to 2015. The Emissions Gap Report, published by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) in 2023, indicates that the ratio should be 28 percent for the 2-degree target. UNEP’s calculations indicate an increase of 3 percent in emissions, although this is an improvement on the outlook prior to the Paris Agreement.

According to the analyses of the Climate Action Tracker project, based on current policies, the average surface temperature is expected to increase by 2.7 degrees by the end of the current century. Based on the National Contribution Declarations (NDCs) of countries for 2030, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, the anticipated warming will reach 2.5 degrees. If long-term pledges and targets are taken into account, it is estimated that the temperature increase can be reduced to 2.1 degrees. The most optimistic scenario is based on current pledges and net zero targets. In this scenario, we can see that an increase of 1.8 degrees Celsius will take place, with the 1.5 degrees Celsius target being the most optimistic outcome. There is a discrepancy of 0.9 degrees between the average values of the optimistic scenario and the current policies scenario.