Coal Exit

To halt the climate crisis and keep the average temperature rise below 1.5 degrees Celsius, we must phase out the use of coal in electricity generation. Many scientific studies suggest that the world should say goodbye to coal-fired power plants in the next 20 years. According to a report prepared by Climate Analytics based on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, OECD countries should close all coal-fired power plants by 2030 and other countries by 2040. At the last meeting of the Parties in Glasgow (COP 26), many countries pledged to meet this target.

A significant portion of the countries that have decided not to use coal in electricity generation are located in Europe. So far, more than 30 European countries have decided to stop using coal in electricity generation and some have already said goodbye to coal power plants. It is possible to categorise the countries in Europe that are evaluating the use of coal in electricity generation in four different groups.

The first group includes countries that have closed or never opened coal-fired power plants. Albania, Austria, Belgium, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Sweden, Switzerland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Portugal are in this group.

Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, Italy, North Macedonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, the Netherlands, Italy, Italy, Italy, Italy, Italy, North Macedonia, Hungary, Hungary, Slovakia and Greece are among the countries that have decided to phase out coal before 2030.

To prevent the worst effects of climate change and stay below the 1.5-degree Celsius temperature rise limit, we must stop using coal in electricity generation. A significant body of scientific research indicates that the world should phase out coal-fired power plants within the next 20 years. A report prepared by Climate Analytics, based on the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, recommends that OECD countries close all coal-fired power plants by 2030 and other countries by 2040. At the most recent meeting of the parties in Glasgow (COP 26), numerous countries made commitments to achieve this objective.

A notable proportion of the countries that have opted not to utilise coal in electricity generation are situated in Europe. To date, over 30 European countries have committed to ceasing the use of coal in electricity generation, with a number of them having already decommissioned their coal-fired power plants. The countries in Europe that are currently evaluating the use of coal in electricity generation can be categorised into four distinct groups.

The first group comprises countries that have either closed or never opened coal-fired power plants. The countries in this group are Albania, Austria, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Estonia, Sweden, Switzerland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway and Portugal.

Denmark, Finland, France, the Netherlands, Ireland, Spain, Italy, North Macedonia, Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, and several other countries have committed to phasing out coal use by 2030.

The third group comprises countries that have elected to phase out coal but have indicated that this will occur after 2030. This group includes Germany, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Montenegro, Romania and Slovenia.The final group comprises four countries that have yet to make a decision regarding the closure of coal-fired power plants. The remaining countries are Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Poland and Turkey. Turkey ratified the Paris Agreement relatively recently and updated its 2030 emissions target in 2022. However, no date has been set for the closure of coal-fired power plants. Furthermore, Turkey’s national energy and development plans do not include a decision to phase out coal in electricity generation. Ekosfer is currently engaged in a campaign on this issue.

Coal and climate crisis

In 2022, global energy consumption reached 442 exajoules (EJ), according to the latest figures. In terms of sectoral consumption, industry was the leading sector with 167 EJ, followed by buildings with 133 EJ and transport with 116 EJ¹. The majority of primary energy sources are fossil fuels (oil, coal and gas), which are a significant contributor to climate change. Oil accounts for 29.4% of global energy consumption, coal for 26.6%, gas for 23.4%, modern and traditional biofuels for 10.5%, nuclear power for 4.9% and hydroelectricity, wind and solar for 4.5%². 

An analysis of the sources of global emissions from fuel combustion reveals that coal accounts for 44%, oil for 32%, and gas for 22%³. While coal accounts for a smaller proportion of primary energy consumption than oil, its higher carbon intensity means it is the leading fossil fuel contributing to the climate crisis. In 2022, global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reached 36.8 gigatonnes. Of this total, 15.5 gigatonnes were attributable to coal⁴. In light of the necessity to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels, the closure of coal-fired thermal power plants, or what is commonly referred to as a “coal phase-out”, is a key topic of discussion. In line with the recommendations set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the share of coal in global primary energy supply should be reduced to 1-7 per cent by 2050⁵.

Farewell to coal in the world

In 2022, global coal demand reached an all-time high of 8.4 billion tonnes⁶. While Asian countries such as India, China, Vietnam and Indonesia are significant contributors to the growth in coal demand, the trend is reversed in developed economies. In Europe, numerous countries have established deadlines for the closure of coal-fired power plants (see below). In 2022, coal demand in the US, a major coal consumer, declined by 8%. We anticipate that coal consumption in the European Union and the United States will decline at a higher rate in 2023. We anticipate that the rate of reduction will be lower in South Korea, Japan, Canada and Australia.⁷

At the 28th Meeting of the Parties (COP 28) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at the end of 2023, there was a call to move away from fossil fuels⁸. At COP 28, 10 new countries (the USA, the UAE, the Czech Republic, the Dominican Republic, Morocco, the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus, Iceland, Kosovo, Malta, and Norway) joined the Powering Past Coal Alliance⁹. This leaves eight OECD countries that have yet to make a decision regarding the phasing out of coal¹⁰. The dates set by these countries for the phase-out of coal vary.

In its World Energy Outlook 2023, the International Energy Agency presents three scenarios for the future of coal. According to the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), world coal demand, which was 5 billion 807 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce¹¹ ) in 2022, is estimated to decline to 3 billion 465 million tonnes in 2050. According to the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), which takes into account the climate targets of countries, coal demand is expected to decline to 1 billion 530 million tonnes in 2050. Based on the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, global coal demand is expected to fall below 500 million tonnes¹² . Please refer to the table below for a detailed overview of the projections for these three scenarios.

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1- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2023, page 107.
2- Chamber of Mechanical Engineers, Turkey Energy Outlook 2023 May presentation. Data belongs to 2021. 
3- https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-tools/greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-energy-data-explorer
4- https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022
5- https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/06/SR15_Full_Report_Low_Res.pdf
6- UEA, Coal 2023, page 7.
7- UEA, Coal 2023, page 7.
8- https://www.temizhavahakki.org/cop28-degerlendirme/
9- https://poweringpastcoal.org/news/progress-on-coal-phase-out-at-cop-28-but-still-not-on-track-for-1-5c/
10- https://ekosfer.org/turkiye-oecd-icinde-komurden-vazgecmeyen-sekiz-ulkeden-biri-2/
11- Million tonnes of coal equivalent. Since coals have different calorific values, taking only the quantity can be misleading. Therefore, the unit of calculation made by equating
the calorific value of coals to kilotons = 7000 gigakalories. Detailed information: https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-product/coal-information-service
12- International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2023, page 140.